Argentina began counting down to the end of the decade-long rule of the Kirchners on Sunday as mid-term elections dealt a near fatal blow to president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s prospects of running for a third term.

Three weeks after undergoing brain surgery, the 60-year-old president was unable to campaign and could only watch as her Peronist Front for Victory party fell far short of of the two-thirds majority that would have been needed to revise the constitution so she could seek re-election when her current term expires in 2015.

While the president’s star has fallen, her erstwhile cabinet minister, Sergio Massa, rose to prominence after quitting the government and running as a candidate for the Renewal Front, a breakaway faction within Fernández’s party.

Early results showed Massa was 13 percentage points ahead of Martin Insaurralde, who was handpicked by Fernández, in the key Buenos Aires district, which accounts for more than one in three of the nation’s voters.

“Sergio will be the most-voted-for leader in the entire country with this election. This is an overwhelming response by the people to our times,” said Dario Giustozzi, who was also standing for the Renewal Front. “This is the end of an era, a new space. Now the people have a place where they can be heard.”

In the prosperous wine-growing province of Mendoza, another departed Fernández ally – former vice-president Julio Cobos – outran the Front for Victory with 47.88% of the vote against 28.18% for the president’s candidate. Cubos is now tipped as another potential presidential candidate.

Final results were still to be announced, but the ruling block was struggling to hold on to the majority it has enjoyed in both houses since Fernández was re-elected in 2011.

Although the economy has grown at a steady clip of about 3% this year, public concerns have focused on high inflation, estimated to be two to three times higher than the official rate of 10%, and foreign exchange controls that have created a black market for dollars at twice the government’s formal rate.

The mid-term elections gave ample opportunity for the public to punish the government. Up for grabs were 124 of the 257 seats in the lower house Chamber of Deputies, and 24 of the 72 seats in the Senate, as well as provincial deputies, senators and a governor.

Observers said the exit polls suggested a blow to the ruling camp. “The opposition not only won but it increased its margin over the government’s candidates with respect to previous elections,” said political analyst Rosendo Fraga.

Despite the likely fall in their representation in the legislature, the Front for Victory said it would remain the dominant political force.

“The Front for Victory remains the most voted party in the country,” said the defence minister, Agustin Rossi.

The outcome is unlikely to result in a short-term policy change in Argentina. But the next two years are likely to see fierce jostling to succeed a president who has won two elections since succeeding her husband Néstor Kirchner in 2007, but who has suffered a series of setbacks this year.

In an earlier set of polls in August, her Front for Victory party notched up the worst performance in its 10-year existence, losing in 14 of the country’s 23 provinces. Earlier this month, the 60-year-old president underwent surgery to remove blood that pooled on her brain after a fall in August.

Although the operation is said to have gone well, Fernández has been unable to campaign during her 30-day convalescence and doctors forbade her from flying to Santa Cruz where she normally casts her vote. Since her surgery, polls suggest the president’s popularity has improved and now stand at about 44%, but it does not appear to have been enough to lift her party.

Doctors have ordered Fernández to be isolated from newspapers and TV reports to ease stress. Juliana Di Tulio, leader of the government’s bloc in the lower House of Congress said she did not know if the president was being kept updated with the results. “I don’t know if she is being told,” Di Tulio said. “I don’t speak to the president personally.”

Di Tulio insisted the Front for Victory was not worried about the poor results. “This is nothing, tomorrow we go back to work as usual and we will still hold the majority in both houses of Congress.”

But the results look likely to mark the end of an era. Although Fernández has never publicly stated a desire to run for a third term, her supporters wanted to amend the constitution so she could stand again. That still cannot be ruled out, but it now appears an extremely difficult goal even for such a wily political operator as Fernández, who may have to concentrate on her health and her legacy, while her party looks for a new candidate.

Massa, 41, now looks likely to run against Buenos Aires governor Daniel Scoili in the 2015 presidential poll. “We are very satisfied and very proud of the overwhelming support we have got from the people,” Massa’s spokesman, Dario Giustozzi, said after the results started flooding in.

The opposition parties are deeply fragmented, but they too were encouraged by the prospects for change.

“This makes us a real alternative for the presidential elections in 2015,”said Diego Santilli of the PRO conservative party at a colourful celebration to mark the projected 40% vote for its one of its candidate for senator. The right-of-centre party hopes this will be a springboard for Buenos Aires mayor Mauricio Macri to run against the Front For Victory in 2015.

“You’ve all said change is possible,” said Macri, firing a shot at his potential rivals in 2015. “I promise that you won’t see a former member of this administration as our candidate in 2015.”

Sunday’s election broke new ground for Argentinian democracy with the franchise being extended for the first time to 16- and 17-year-olds. Voting was voluntary for them, but compulsory for the rest of the 30.5 million eligible voters.

The run-up to the election was not without incident. Last week, a train crash on one of the main rail lines in Buenos Aires left 68 people injured and raised questions about the government’s competence. In Santa Fe gunmen fired on the residence of governor Antonio Bonfatti also in one of the most violent attacks on a politician since the end of the military dictatorship in 1982. The assault is believed to have been drug-related.

But no major unrest was reported on the day of the vote. Police monitored the ballot boxes and more than 91,000 troops, eight helicopters and seven naval vessels were deployed to ensure stability.

Source: The Guardian (UK)